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Citation Download PDF. International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration Volume 6, Issue 5, JulyPages DOI: Abstract: This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatilities on international trade in Nigeria.
The research is carried under the assumption that exchange rate volatilities are deemed to impact on the volume of export and import trading activities. The study made use of Secondary data from to Econometric tools were used to ascertain relationships. The paper established a mixed result between the variables under review. While some of the tests did not provide adequate and predictive information on the relationship between exports, imports and real effective exchange rate, phd thesis of exchange rates did.
The VAR model estimates indicate an inverse relationship between Export, Import and REER in current periods. A unit increase in export and import in a particular year leads to about 0. Variance decomposition analysis suggests that the shocks partially explain fluctuations in REER, as well as exports and imports.
The Impulse response analysis indicates a negative association between export and real effective exchange rate while it was majorly positive for imports throughout the ten periods. The causal effect reveals that import causes exports but that exports do not granger cause imports.
The ARCH modelling approach suggests the existence of a first-order Arch effect and a significant GARCH term. Though the Coefficient of GARCH in a mean term is negative; it produced a singular covariance which by itself is not unique. Results show evidence of volatility of REER clustering on import and export trading activities in Nigeria. This could have serious implications for growth in Nigeria, as a reduction in the growth of exports could reduce the foreign exchange earnings available for the financing of developmental projects.
At the same time, phd thesis of exchange rates, a decline in imports could affect domestic production and consumption. It could also phd thesis of exchange rates negatively on the balance of payment positions for Nigeria. In line with these observations, monetary and fiscal interventions are required to mitigate the adverse effects since financial shocks often exacerbate exchange rate volatilities.
Keywords : Export, phd thesis of exchange rates, Import, Real exchange rate, Nominal exchange rate, International trade, Exchange rate volatility. Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade in Nigeria. Simply put, international trade is the exchange of goods and services across international borders. Historically speaking, international trade is as old as civilization.
From ancient times, authors and scholars alike deemed international trade to be a catalyst for industrial productivity and overall economic growth and development. Since no nation is a pariah state, they all depend on one another for goods and services that are produced more efficiently elsewhere Analogbei International trade consists of import and export trades. Basically, the volume of exports in Nigeria hovers around a mono-product, phd thesis of exchange rates, i.
crude oil. The price of oil reached the historic high amounting to USD per barrel by mid IFS, This continued unabated following the adoption of a democratic dispensation in and peaked in There was a downward slide afterwhich lasted till about Afterit increased phd thesis of exchange rates and have made consistent leaps phd thesis of exchange rates lasted till and beyond, phd thesis of exchange rates.
The above scenarios are shown in figure 1 below:. Figure 1: Export Source : CBN Statistical bulletin Import refers to the total amount of goods and services brought into a country at a particular time. For the period under review tophd thesis of exchange rates, the quantum of imports has exhibited an exponential increase.
This trend is aptly shown in figure 2 below:. Figure 2: Import Phd thesis of exchange rates : CBN Statistical bulletin In international trade, there is a common denominator affecting the quantum of export proceeds and amount spent on total imports, i.
This refers to the exchange rate of one currency note to the other. Exchange rates are never static. The supply and demand of significant currencies fluctuate over time, phd thesis of exchange rates.
Thus, exchange rate volatility refers to the tendency for foreign currencies to appreciate or depreciate in value, thus affecting the profitability of foreign exchange trades. Okechukwu et al, phd thesis of exchange rates. Volatility is the measurement of the number of rate changes and the frequency of such changes. There are many instances when exchange rate volatility occurs, including business dealings between parties from two different countries and international investments.
Volatility in such circumstances is difficult to avoid. In Nigeria, there has been a persistent fluctuation in the exchange rate. The major factors contributing to the exchange rate fluctuation include interest rate, inflation, the balance of payment, and government phd thesis of exchange rates. The trends of exchange rates are shown in figure 3 below:.
Figure 3 Source : CBN Statistical Bulletin. The fluctuations in the exchange rate are evident: Inthere was a significant rise in exchange rate volatility. This could partially be attributed to returning to democracy, as there was a significant shift from the fixed exchange rate to the flexible exchange rate.
Under the fluctuating exchange rate, the CBN attempted to devalue the naira, thereby stabilizing exchange rates movement. Both the Nominal and Real exchange rates increased tremendously between and Both peaked around before a decline. From tovolatility rates have been quite unpredictable. Though Nigeria has been engaged in foreign trade for many decades, she has been persistently marginalized, and her level of participation and share in global trade phd thesis of exchange rates deficient Osuegbu, This may not be unconnected with our low-level production, dependence on primary products and adverse exchange rate volatility.
This research is, therefore, set to ascertain the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade in Nigeria. According to Udehone of the biggest challenges Nigeria faces as a nation is how to reduce import dependence and implement export led-growth policies. From the agricultural collapse to the current oil-led growth, the Nigerian economy has been on a crossroad and is in dire need of diversification. According to OsuegbuNigeria has been engaged in foreign trade for many decades, and yet it was persistently marginalized, with a significantly low degree of participation and share in global trade.
Nigeria failed to exploit the full potentials of international trade for high productivity and rapid economic transformation. The issue of exchange rate volatility is partly contributing to this lopsidedness in international trading activities. A prime concern today for most policymakers is how to capitalize on international trade. Recent trends in international trade and globalization prompted the policy debate over the pros and cons of different exchange rate systems.
One of the issues in the discussion is the trade effect of exchange rate volatility. Proponents of fixed exchange rates have long argued that the risks associated with exchange rate volatility discourage economic agents from cross-border trading.
Opponents have maintained that there are useful instruments to hedge against the exchange rate volatility, and hence the effect should be immaterial. Several studies discuss the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade. Phd thesis of exchange rates basic idea is that: if countries are risk-averse or even risk-neutralhigher exchange rate uncertainty may lead to a reduction in the volume of trade because they may not want to risk their expected trade profits.
Exchange rate volatility can affect international trade directly, through uncertainty and adjustment costs, and indirectly, through its effect on the structure of output and investment and on government policy Brodsky, Udehposits that different schools of thought have a diverse view of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade performances.
While some studies provide evidence indicating a negative relationship; others suggest there are positive effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade. This study seeks to identify the effects of exchange rate volatility on export and import trades in Nigeria. The conceptual weakness in existing literature provides further impetus for this study. The study intends to investigate the extent to which exchange rate volatility impacts on the volume of international trading activities in Nigeria.
The paper will examine the seeming mismatch between fluctuating exchange rates and enhanced international trading transactions between Nigeria and her trading partners. The study will also accomplish the following:. b Examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports out of Nigeria.
c Determine the influence of exchange rate volatility on imports into Nigeria. Having stated the above objectives, the following research questions are therefore considered relevant to the study. Succinctly put, has exchange rate volatilities affected the level of international trading activities in Nigeria?
The present study will provide answers to the above questions. H There is no significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and the volume of international trading activities in Nigeria in the long run. H There is no significant relationship phd thesis of exchange rates exchange rate volatility and export trades in Nigeria in the long run.
H There is no significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade imports in Nigeria in the long run.
The study will review the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trading activities in Nigeria. The study will provide recommendations to policymakers that could assist in appraising the effectiveness of exchange rate regimes, phd thesis of exchange rates.
The study will also serve as reference material for phd thesis of exchange rates and further works on the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade in Nigeria and its attendant effects on the economy.
It will also provide a basis for further comparative studies, in both the developed and less developed economies. The study covers the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade in Nigeria for the period to This study is limited to the Nigerian context, and the scope of the study was determined by data availability, phd thesis of exchange rates.
The relevant literature associated with this study will be reviewed from the standpoint of a conceptual, theoretical and empirical framework. International trade foreign trade could be defined as the exchange of goods and services across international borders. In its purest form, it is the exchange of capital goods and services between countries or trade across international borders or territories Wikipedia,
Floating and Fixed Exchange Rates- Macroeconomics
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